Within the widespread uncertainty following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “control” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, one thing is clear – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.
A Grim History and a New Escalation
The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but this past Saturday morning saw its premier large-scale offensive on the continent of South America. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Trump proclaimed.
The move to assault another state and seize its president – mere days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – carries even broader implications. We all have reason to be worried.
Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis
Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has suggested that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and dismissed conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other parts of the decapitated regime are even more hardline.
From Global Policeman to International Outlaw
A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is transforming it into a renegade nation.
He believes that the United States' strength permits it to do as it wishes with little consequence: observe the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “will be financially free”.
An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty
George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.
Put aside the signal this transmits to global powers like Russia and China, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage additional military gambits.
The Thin Pretext and True Motives
No one buys the justification that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the allure of petroleum resources as well as a desire to project strength, the ideology of some in his administration, and the appetite for triumphalism as his standing with the American public falters.
Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance
The international response, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode emphasizes the UN's diminishing clout.
Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could yet press him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals fuel his desire for external drama.
Barely 12 months into his presidential term. The international community may come to rue the day if they fail to speak up today, given what – and who – could be next.
