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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly acts as a form of apology. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement wins the award. However, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or simply the biggest shock.

But this year's competition is distinctly unique. The pool of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions falling away and recent underperformers rising collectively. In an typical year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this wild and thrilling season, he's up against multiple other elite candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to create magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But the current is not a normal season!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, he bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

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