A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
